Researching the fertility rate of immigrants for the first time

“Fertility of immigrants in Iceland hasn’t been researched before,” says Ari Klængur Jónsson, a project manager and researcher at UI. He is currently looking at the fertility rate of Polish immigrants as part of a larger project exploring fertility and childbearing intentions in Iceland from several perspectives.

First study of its kind

The study uses micro data from Statistics Iceland to compare the fertility rate of Polish women living in Iceland 2014-2022 with the fertility rate of Icelandic women during the same period. This data is then contextualised using official statistics from Iceland and Poland. “This is basic research comparing two demographic groups,” explains Ari Klængur.

The research shows that in 2014, the Total Fertility Rate of Polish women in Iceland was 1.75 children. This was higher than the rate in Poland (1.3), though lower than the rate of Icelandic women (2.0). Research conducted in other countries has shown that it often takes several years for the fertility rates of immigrants to peak after they immigrate. By 2022, however, the fertility rate of Polish women in Iceland had dropped to just over 1 child, which was lower than the fertility rate in Poland. At the same time, the total fertility rate of Icelandic women had fallen to around 1.8.

Socially significant research

Although this is basic research, the findings will have significance for our society. “This is the first step towards a better understanding of how different factors, such as income and education, in addition to country of birth and the process of international migration, can affect these statistics,” says Ari.

As mentioned above, similar research in other countries indicates that it often takes several years for fertility rates to peak after immigration. Findings like these can provide us with insight into how social and economic frameworks can affect family structures.

Why have fertility rates fallen?

This study is part of a larger project that was awarded a Grant of Excellence from the Icelandic Research Fund in 2022. The project explores fertility and childbearing intentions in Iceland from various perspectives, including income and country of origin, yielding important information for policy makers.

The researchers use various research methods and data, and among other things, examine fertility by means of event history analysis, which is a statistical method used to analyse temporary processes and the likelihood of a certain event occurring at a certain duration of time. However, Ari explains that some factors are missing from the analysis of the fertility of Polish-born women, such as length of residence in Iceland.

“We can infer that the increase in the population of Polish women in Iceland has affected our findings, since numbers have risen so rapidly in such a short period. The absolute numbers have of course impact in our calculations,” says Ari.

But this is just part of a larger question: What are the factors that influence a family’s decisions about childbearing? Similar Nordic studies have shown that Polish immigrants in countries like Norway exhibit similar patterns, although the changes occur more slowly. 

Creating opportunities for further research into fertility rates

Ari explains that this basic study opens the door to further research into the impact of social and economic changes on the childbearing intentions of immigrants. The findings may also be used by policy makers, especially in the area of family policy.

In Iceland, changes in housing prices, services and employment could have a significant impact on people’s decisions around childbearing. This raises another important question: How can we as a society create better conditions for families, irrespective of the individual’s country of birth and socioeconomic background?