Doctoral defence in Civil Engineering - Victor Moises Hernández Aguirre

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Doctoral candidate: Victor Moises Hernández Aguirre

Title of thesis: Tectonic and volcanic strong ground motion in Iceland: from empirical modelling to physics-based simulations

Opponents:
Dr. Carmine Galasso, Professor at the Faculty of Civil Engineering, University College London, United Kingdom
Dr. Karim Tarbali, Associate Professor at the Laboratoire de Mécanique, Université Paris-Saclay, France

Advisor: Dr. Rajesh Rupakhety, Professor at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Iceland

Other members of the doctoral committee:
Dr. Roberto Paolucci, Professor at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Dr. Bjarni Bessason, Professor at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Iceland
Dr. Sigurður Erlingsson, Professor at the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Iceland
Dr. Chiara Smerzini, Professor at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Chair of Ceremony: Dr. Hrund Ólöf Andradóttir, Professor and Head of the Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Iceland

This is a joint degree between the University of Iceland and Politecnico di Milano, Italy

Abstract

This dissertation presents advances in computational methods for the prediction of earthquake ground motion with applications to seismic hazard assessment in Iceland and beyond. Three main topics are addressed. First, the three-dimensional seismic response of the Mexico City basin was investigated through physics-based simulations (PBS). The second topic focuses on strong ground motions generated by volcano-tectonic earthquakes in the Reykjanes Peninsula. Analysis of recent events shows unusually large peak ground accelerations and long-period amplitudes, in some cases exceeding the 475-year return period design spectra. A ground-motion model (GMM) for volcanic earthquakes in Iceland was developed, providing an essential tool for improving seismic hazard estimates in the Reykjanes Peninsula, the Capital area, and other volcanic regions worldwide. The third part of this work advances PBS methodologies through improvements in both finite-source characterization and broadband ground-motion simulation. A new pseudo-dynamic rupture framework was introduced to generate realistic heterogeneous source models, enabling semi-automatic construction of complex kinematic ruptures. Validated with the 2000 South Iceland earthquakes, this approach allows deterministic simulations to account for source uncertainties and reproduce the high-frequency content of ground motion. In addition, the ANN2BB (Artifical Neural Network to BroadBand) hybrid simulation technique was enhanced with transfer learning, combining global and limited local datasets. Overall, the developments presented in this dissertation improve the reliability and scope of computational earthquake ground-motion prediction. They contribute to a better understanding of basin effects in large urban areas, to a more accurate treatment of volcanic seismicity in hazard assessment, and to the refinement of physics-based ground motion simulations. 

About the doctoral candidate

Victor Moises Hernández Aguirre (born 1995, Mexico) is a civil engineer specializing in earthquake engineering. He holds a B.Eng. from the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) and an M.Sc. from Politecnico di Milano. His research integrates empirical observations with large-scale physics-based simulations to improve ground-motion prediction for engineering design and seismic-hazard assessment. He has worked as a geotechnical engineer in Mexico and has consulted on earthquake-engineering projects. During his doctoral studies at the University of Iceland, he contributed to teaching and mentoring in the Department of Civil Engineering. Outside of work, he enjoys spending time in the great outdoors.